CMSP Oncology Hospital, Galați – investor view

In the Realistic scenario the fund puts in — of new capital for an equity IRR of — and a money multiple of — at a 2035 exit. The schedule is the same in all scenarios: state-aid invoices by 31 December 2027, opening in April 2028.

Scenario (occupancy at maturity)

Figures in EUR from the financial model updated on 26 October 2026 (Deloitte model, corrected). The three scenarios share the same investment, cost base and calendar; only the occupancy at maturity differs. The tiles follow the scenario selected above.

Initial investment 2026–2028, incl. VAT

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of which state aid —

New capital required after the permit

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total paid-in capital to exit —

EBITDA 2033

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margin —

Equity IRR

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project IRR with state aid —

MOIC (money multiple)

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NPV at 10% —

Enterprise value at exit (2035, 9× EBITDA)

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EBITDA 2031, first full year —

Scenarios side by side

Three occupancy scenarios

Static values from the model's scenario sheet, regenerated on 26 October 2026. EUR unless stated.

Swipe sideways to see all columns.

Scenario	Occupancy	New capital	EBITDA 2031	EBITDA 2033	Margin 2033	EV at exit	Project IRR	Equity IRR	MOIC	NPV @10%

Trajectory

EBITDA by year, 2027–2035

All three scenarios; the opening is April 2028 and full utilisation is reached in 2031.

Capital contributions by year

New capital called from the fund, 2027–2029, by scenario. The 2027 call is the same in all scenarios.

Investment and funding

Uses and sources, 2026–2028

Uses are the initial investment incl. non-recoverable VAT. Sources exceed uses by the start-up losses and the minimum cash balance.

Side	Item	EUR

Total uses — · total sources — · difference (start-up losses and minimum cash) —

Sensitivities – change in equity IRR

Realistic scenario, one assumption changed at a time; percentage points versus the reference.

Exit multiple benchmarks

The model values the hospital at exit (2035) at 9 × EBITDA. Two Romanian reference points, from public sources.

Company	Reference	Enterprise value	EV / EBITDA
Regina MariaTrade sale to Mehiläinen	Signed Apr 2025, closed Dec 2025	≈ €1.06bn€768.5m equity price (incl. €77.4m earn-out) + €292m debt	n/aEBITDA not disclosed; 2.3 × 2024 revenue of €464m
MedLifeListed, BVB: M	Market price, Mar 2026	≈ €1.5bn7.86bn lei: market cap 6.1bn + net debt 1.76bn	17.7×2025 EBITDA of 444.5m lei
CMSPThis model	Assumed exit, 2035	—Realistic scenario	9×Exit-year EBITDA

Sources: Mehiläinen financing prospectus as reported by Ziarul Financiar and Mediafax (Aug 2025); MedLife preliminary FY2025 report (BVB, Feb 2026) and FinancialMarket.ro (Mar 2026). Scale and portfolio differ (single oncology hospital vs. national networks), so the references are an upper bound, not a target.

The build and opening schedule comes from the ABB MedTec contract (addendum no. 1), the state-aid agreement and the model's calendar. It is contractual and identical in the three scenarios; what the scenarios change is the ramp-up after opening and the capital needed to cover it.

Project timeline, November 2026 – December 2031

Bars are phases, diamonds are milestones. The exit in 2035 is listed in the table below.

Colours are the project phases; a bar is a phase with a start and an end, a diamond is a dated milestone.

Milestones and phases

Phase and basis are shown on wider screens.

#	Phase	Task	Start	End	Basis

What the scenario changes after opening

Effective occupancy by year

Utilisation ramp (37.5% → 57.5% → 82.5% → 100%) multiplied by the scenario's occupancy at maturity.

Path to break-even and full capacity

First year with positive EBITDA, EBITDA in the first full year (2031) and the total capital called, by scenario.

Scenario	EBITDA > 0 from	EBITDA 2031	Capital called	Last call

Retro-planning counts backwards from the two dates that cannot move: eligible invoices under the state-aid agreement must be issued by 31 December 2027, and the hospital must open in April 2028 to enter the CNAS contracting window. For each step the table shows the latest date that still meets its anchor, the planned date, and the buffer between them.

Buffer per step (days)

Latest acceptable date minus planned date. Zero means the step is on the critical path.

Capital calls by year and scenario

The 2027 peak is funded from capital (no bridge loan): the ABB invoice is paid in September and the state aid arrives in December.

Steps, anchors and buffers

Anchor and note are shown on wider screens.

Step	Anchor	Latest date	Planned	Buffer	Status	Note

The timing risk in numbers

Equity IRR if the state aid slips to 2028

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versus the reference —

New capital if the state aid slips to 2028

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peak funding September–December 2027

Equity IRR if the state aid is lost entirely

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invoices issued after 31 December 2027 lose the aid

Glossary

ABB: ABB MedTec S.R.L., the contractor for the construction works and the medical equipment (contract no. 250270/31.07.2025 and addendum no. 1).
C1: The existing building on the site (former commercial centre), refitted as a medical clinic.
C2: The new hospital building.
CNAS: Casa Națională de Asigurări de Sănătate, the Romanian national health insurance fund that contracts and reimburses hospital services.
CNCAN: The Romanian nuclear regulator, which authorises radiotherapy and nuclear-medicine equipment.
EBITDA: Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation: operating revenue less operating costs.
EBITDA margin: EBITDA divided by revenue.
Equity IRR: Internal rate of return on the shareholders' cash flows: capital paid in, and the proceeds at the 2035 exit.
EV (enterprise value): The value of the business at exit, taken as 9 × EBITDA of the exit year.
FTE: Full-time equivalent staff.
HG 807/2014: Romanian Government Decision 807/2014, the state-aid scheme for investments; the project's grant agreement is no. 575/13.03.2023.
ICU: Intensive care unit.
INS indexation: Price adjustment under art. 24 of the ABB contract, based on indices of the Romanian National Institute of Statistics.
MOIC: Multiple on invested capital: total proceeds to shareholders divided by total capital paid in.
New capital: Capital contributions required after the building permit, until the exit, in the model's cash flow.
NPV: Net present value of the project cash flows (with state aid), discounted at 10% a year, 2026 as year 0.
Occupancy: Share of the hospital's capacity used at maturity: 95% (Optimistic), 85% (Realistic, the Deloitte base case) or 75% (Pessimistic).
pp: Percentage points, the difference between two percentages.
Project IRR: Internal rate of return on the project's own cash flows (investment, operations, state aid, exit), before financing.
Ramp-up / utilisation: Share of mature volumes reached in each operating year: 37.5%, 57.5%, 82.5%, then 100% from the fourth year.
Rybred Invest: The company that owns the land and the C1 building and holds 30% of the hospital company; acquired by the fund for €5.0m.
State aid: The grant under HG 807/2014: 60% of eligible construction and equipment costs, capped at 78.27m lei (€14.63m), reimbursed after the eligible invoices are paid.
VAT: Value-added tax, 21%. The hospital's services are VAT-exempt, so VAT on its purchases is a cost; VAT on the C1 works is deductible at Rybred.